Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Named Storms - 2015 through 2020

The following lists are the named storms for the given years between 2015 and 2020. Alex and Bonnie are now history, so Colin will become the next named storm, followed by Danielle. At the present time, there is a disturbance in South East Pacific, and it may develop within the next 48 hours. What happens if we run out of hurricane names for any given year? We will be using our third given name this year and the Atlantic Hurricane season begins tomorrow. The fact is that if we are unlucky enough to run out of names, the one thing that will not happen will be to use names for the next given year. What will happen instead, the National Hurricane Center will turn to the Greek alphabet and we'll have Hurricanes Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lamda, Mu, Nu, Xi, etc. So now you know all the names for the coming storms through the year 2020.

2015                2016                 2017                 2018               2019                2020

Ana                 Alex                Arlene              Alberto           Andrea             Arthur
Bill                  Bonnie            Bret                 Beryl               Barry               Bertha
Claudette        Colin               Cindy              Chris               Chantal            Cristobal
Danny             Danielle          Don                 Debby             Dorian             Dolly
Erika               Earl                 Emily              Ernesto           Erin                  Edouard
Fred                Fiona               Franklin          Florence         Fernand            Fay
Grace             Gaston             Gert                 Gordon          Gabrielle           Gonzalo
 Henri             Hermine           Harvey            Helene           Humberto          Hanna
Ida                 Ian                    Irma                Isaac            Imelda               Isaias
Joaquin          Julia                 Jose                 Joyce           Jerry                  Josephine
Kate               Karl                 Katia                Kirk               Karen                Kyle
Larry              Lisa                 Lee                   Leslie            Lorenzo             Laura
Mindy           Matthew            Maria                Michael         Melissa              Marco
Nicholas       Nicole              Nate                  Nadine          Nestor                Nana
Odette          Otto                 Ophelia             Oscar            Olga                   Omar
Peter             Paula                Philippe            Patty             Pablo                  Paulette
Rose             Richard            Rina                  Rafael           Rebekah              Rene
Sam              Shary             Sean                  Sara              Sebastien             Sally
Teresa           Tobias             Tammy              Tony             Tanya                  Teddy
Victor            Virginie           Vince                 Valerie          Van                     Vicky
Wanda           Walter              Whitney            William         Wendy                Wilfred

Monday, May 30, 2016

Disturbance Located - 10% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours

As reported by the Nation Hurricane Center in Miami Florida, there is now a reported disturbance confirmed as of 11:00 pm PDT Monday, May 30, 2016.

The report claims the following:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conductive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the disturbance moves west-northwestward to westward at 5 to 10 mph. The formation chance through 48 hours is low at about 10%. The formation chance through 5 days is high, now at 80%.

Tropical Storm BONNIE Downgraded to a Tropical Depression

  

   Tropical Storm Bonnie has been downgraded to a tropical depression even before it made landfall just east of Charleston, South Carolina on the Isle of Palms around 8:30AM Sunday. It is moving very slowly, 1-2 MPH up the South Carolina Coast, with winds up to 30 MPH reaching as far north to Virginia. By 8AM on Thursday, the eye of the storm should be heading off shore to the North East. New York City. Presently it is converging on Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. It is not expected to strengthen in the next 48 hours. At the present time, all tropical storm warnings have been discontinued. The storm is bringing heavy rain with gusty winds, elevated surf and dangerous rip currents with an associated storm surge with minor coastal flooding. Another 4-6 inches of rain is expected across east-central Georgia, central and eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. Even with the storm dissipation imminent, there should be heavy raid that will spread well north of Bonnie's main circulation gong into the Mid-Atlantac and Northeast.


Saturday, May 28, 2016

Hurricane Facts

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE

After a hurricane goes through its stages and matures, it still can intensify to certain sizes and strengths. Much like that of humans once they're adults. This all depends on the right environmental factors and whether or not it is near land. The Saffir-Simpson Scale is a way to indicate the strength of these storms by their sustained wind speed, and central barometric pressure.

Category 1 – 74-95 mph (64-82 knots; 119-153 km/hr). Damage is limited to foliage, signage, unanchored boats and mobile homes. There is no significant damage to buildings. The main threat to life and property may be flooding from heavy rains.

Category 2 – 96-110 mph (83-95 knots; 154-177 km/hr). Roof damage to buildings. Doors and windows damaged. Mobile homes severely damaged. Piers damaged by storm surge. Some trees blown down, more extensive limb damage.

Category 3 – 111-130 mph (96-113 knots; 178-209 km/hr). This is the first step of Major Hurricane. Landfalling major hurricanes have their names retired from the list of available hurricane names. For example, after Hurricane Charley made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, its name was retired. In the future, when someone says “Hurricane Charley”, there will be no doubt which storm is meant. Category 3 storms cause structural damage to some buildings. Mobile homes are completely destroyed. Roof damage is common. Storm surge begins to cause significant damage in beaches and harbors, with small buildings destroyed.

Category 4 – 131-155 mph (114-135 knots; 210-249 km/hr). Structural failure of some buildings. Complete roof failures on many buildings. Extreme storm surge damage and flooding. Severe coastal erosion, with permanent changes to the coastal landscape not unheard of. Hurricane force winds extend well inland.

Category 5 – Greater than 155 mph (135 knots; 249 km/hr). Complete roof failure on most buildings. Many buildings destroyed, or structurally damaged beyond repair. Catastrophic storm surge damage. All Category 5 hurricanes’ names are retired, regardless whether they ever make landfall. In the Northwest Pacific, a typhoon that reaches 150 mph (241 km/hr) is called a Super Typhoon. The damage caused by a super typhoon is equivalent to a strong Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane, depending on how strong the typhoon is. Because conditions in the Northwest Pacific favor storm formation throughout most of the year, super typhoons are much more common than Category 5 hurricanes. Every year the Northwest Pacific sees several super typhoons, while the Atlantic might see one Category 5 every few years.




WHAT CAUSES HURRICANES?

There are approximately 100 tropical waves that travel westward from the West Coast of Africa through the Atlantic every year. So, how do these waves become one of the ten or so tropical storms, and hurricanes that occur each season. There are several key factors that come together to develop tropical storms and hurricanes: warm sea surface temperatures, light winds aloft, and rotation or spin. If any one of these factors is unavailable, then the tropical storm or hurricane can weaken or decay.
  • Warm sea surface temperatures--This is a key ingredient because it serves as the fuel source for hurricanes. Sea surface, or ocean temperatures need to be at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) where the system is located in order for it to develop into a tropical storm or hurricane.
  • Light winds aloft--Hurricanes and tropical storms travel east to west so they are supported by an easterly wind flow. They are also vertical systems in that they have thunderstorms that build vertically in the atmosphere. These two conditions make hurricanes quite different from the storms that usually bring us our weather, and make it essential to have light westerly winds aloft so that there is no shearing, or tearing apart of thunderstorms.
  • Rotation, or spin--In order for the wave to be considered a depression, storm, or hurricane, it must have some rotation, or spin generated by the winds coming together to form it. Without this ingredient, the wave is just another area of low pressure.

Carolina Cost Threatened by Tropical Storm Bonnie



 Expect heavy rainfall and guest of winds for coastal North and South Carolina, as the 2nd storm of the year has been upgraded to a tropical storm named Bonnie. This will most definitely put a damper on Memorial Day weekend activities for beach goers.

So the facts are clear. The weather this hurricane season may be frequent, as this is already the second named storm of the 2016 hurricane season year, but the fact is that the regular hurricane season still hasn't officially begun. Last year, tropical storm Ana took the coast 3 weeks before the beginning the the Atlantic Hurricane season. While coming on-shore, it had sustained winds of 60 mph. An advisory from the National Weather Service claims that Tropical Storm Bonnie is moving towards the northwest at about 10 miles per hour. The warning is presently active for the areas between the Savanna River outside of Savanna, George, to the Myrtle Beach-area town of Little River Inlet, S. Carolina. It is expected to go ashore near Charleston, and heavy rain is expected along the Mid-Atlantic coast, straight up towards New England. Most likely, there will be storm surges, dangerous life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the coast. There is also a likelihood of a few  tornadoes during the on-slot.

Forecast Advisory from the National Weather Center

000
WTNT22 KNHC 290231
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
0300 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N  79.5W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE  20SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N  79.5W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  79.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.8N  80.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.7N  80.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.1N  79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.5N  78.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.3N  77.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 35.0N  76.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 35.5N  75.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N  79.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN