Friday, May 31, 2013

Hurricanes 101

What is a Hurricane? 

How are they formed? 

Where do they come from? 

Why are Hurricanes considered one of the strongest forces on earth?


Now is the time to know? Tomorrow is June 1, 2013, the official beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season !

These are just a few of the questions that people think about when they think of severe tropical weather. Below is a video called 'Hurricane 101' which appeared on 'National Geographic'. Also included with this video is the transcript listed on a 'per second' basis, so you can actually go out to the video, find a specific moment of it and read along with the video. Associating a story along with the video helps observers learn abit easier on this topic of Hurricanes. This is mother nature in its grandest fury, but what are hurricanes truly all about?



0:01 Violent winds, Driving rain, Killer waves.
0:07 These are the hallmarks of a hurricane
0:09 also called cyclones or typhoons.
0:12 Hurricanes are giant storms prowling the world's tropical seas.
0:17 An average hurricane releases as much energy in a day
0:20 as many as half a million small atomic bombs.
0:25 Hurricanes form in the summer and fall when the sun heats vast     stretches of
0:29 tropical ocean
0:31 to over eighty two degrees.
0:33 Warm, moist air rises over these hot spots creating thunderstorms.
0:39 Upper-level winds and surface winds then come together forming a circular pattern
0:44 of clouds known as a tropical depression.
0:48 When the winds exceed thirty nine miles per hour,a tropical storm has developed.
0:53 When the winds reach seventy four miles per hour, a hurricane is
0:57 officially born.
0:59 Inside the storm, bands of rain up to three hundred miles long meet in the
1:04 eyewall, the most violent section. Here, winds of up to two hundred miles per
1:09 hour spiral upward
1:11 within the center of the hurricane. Down drafts of dry air are
1:16 created in a strangely calm area called the eye.
1:20 A fully formed a hurricane may stretch over five hundred miles in diameter.
1:25 That's a storm nearly the size of Texas and
1:28 reach a height of nine miles.
1:32 Most of these storms spin out over the open sea
1:35 but in an average year, two or three will strike the mainland of North America
1:40 and when they do, the damage can be catastrophic.
1:44 Most dangerous is the storm surge,
1:46 a wall of water that's meets across the coastline where a hurricane makes landfall.
1:53 About forty five thousand people were killed by hurricanes in the twentieth
1:57 century,
1:58 including some fifteen thousand in the United States.
2:03 Hurricanes are also costly in dollars.
2:05 Nineteen-ninety two's Hurricane Andrew
2:08 was the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history, causing more than twenty
2:13 five
2:13 billion dollars worth of damage.
2:17 Scientists are searching for better ways to predict the path of a hurricane.
2:22 Special planes called hurricane hunters
2:25 fly directly into these monster storms and drop sensors to measure wind speed,
2:30 temperature an air pressure,
2:32 providing vital clues into the hurricanes direction.
2:38 Viewing 3D models also helping scientists understand this awesome force
2:42 of nature,
2:44 and provide a quicker and more accurate warning to
2:47 anyone unlucky enough to be caught in its path.

Eastern Asia Weather Easing Up


By the weekend of June 1, 2013, a though a high pressure area will improve conditions as fairer weather rolls in from the west.  Not sharing in on the the better weather though is south eastern China where widespread showers are expected as the rainy season front continues to linger over the area. Flooding is going to be high at risk here along with mudslides as the ground is already saturated following the rains this past week.  Through Wednesday thus far Guizhou has reported rain totals up to 150mm while Chongqing has seen totals nearing 100mm.  Now up to 50-100mm of rainfall is expected through Thursday with isolated areas seeing up to 250cm along the Yangzi River Basin.

 As previously reported, another area we are still watching is a active low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal near Bangladesh. Moisture inflow from this area will continue to bring heavy rain through Thursday but thankfully it will weaken off by the weekend.  Along with the low there is a continued and serious risk of flooding in coastal areas.  On the other hand it is in the beginning stages for the southwest monsoon to start in India which will provide more cooler temperatures.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season starts tomorrow, June 1, 2013, but the worldwide tropical weather seems to be fairly calm at the moment, but with El Nino not assisting with keeping storms at bay this year, storms will develop that can be quite harmful from the tropics.

ALL TROPICAL WEATHER WORLDWIDE WILL BE REPORTED RIGHT HERE ON THIS BLOG, AS IT HAPPENS, WITH WARNINGS AND STATISTICS AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. 

NO INCIDENTAL TORNADO WEATHER WILL BE REPORTED HERE, BUT IF A TORNADIC STORM IS CONCEIVED FROM A HURRICANE, IT WILL ALSO BE REPORTED ! 

Thursday, May 30, 2013

How To Prepare for a Hurricane

By , About.com Guide
Hurricanes are dangerous events. Those of us who have lived through one of these fierce storms are aware of their awesome potential. If you're new to the area, it's easy to fall victim to the "How bad can a storm be?" syndrome. In this article, we look at the simple measures you can take now to ensure that your family is ready for hurricane season.
Difficulty: Average
Time Required: 5 hours

Here's How:

  1. Select a safe place for the family to weather the storm. This may be a location in your home -- consider a windowless room on the bottom floor. If your home doesn't have a safe area, you should know the locations of at least two emergency shelters near your home. If you have special medical needs and don't think you'll be able to get to the shelter on your own, contact the county in advance to make prior arrangements.
  2. Stock up on food and water. You should have enough non-perishable food and water in your home to last the family for at least a few weeks. If your stock of supplies is old, be sure to refresh it. You might want to purchase new canned goods every few years and rotate the rest through your pantry. Water should be replaced annually.
  3. Prepare other disaster supplies. You'll need to stock up on batteries, flashlights, rope, tarps, plastic bags, bad-weather clothing and other essentials to help you through the aftermath of a bad storm.
  4. Get your home ready. If you have hurricane shutters, make sure that you have all of the parts and have some extra screws/washers handy. If you don't, have a supply of plywood precut to fit your windows. Gather anything loose from your yard and store it in the garage. Watch the news when a storm is approaching and protect your home when advised by local authorities. If you wait until the rain starts, it may be too late.
  5. Develop a family communications plan. You might become separated before or after the storm. It's a good idea to have an out-of-state contact (a relative up north?) to act as the point of contact for all family members in the event of an emergency. Make sure everyone in the family knows who that person is and carries their phone number in their wallet or purse.
  6. Check your insurance coverage. Companies stop writing coverage when a storm is approaching. Ensure that your homeowner's insurance has enough windstorm coverage to rebuild your home in today's market. Also, remember that standard insurance doesn't cover flooding. You'll need special flood insurance from the federal government.
  7. Plan for the family pets. Shelters will not accept pets. If you want to ensure your pets livelihood, you may wish to consider evacuating early to a friend's home that's in a safe area.
  8. Keep your vehicles gassed up to at least half a tank at all times throughout hurricane season. When a storm approaches, lines WILL get long (up to five hours!) and gas stations will run out of gas before the storm hits. You need to have enough gas to safely evacuate if the situation warrants. 

    What You Need

    • Non-perishable food
    • Drinking water
    • Batteries
    • Medication for all family members
    • First aid kit
    • Flashlights
    • Battery-operated radio
    • Cash
    • Toiletries
    • Clothing

Now Tropical Storm Barbara Continues to Weaken



The U.S. National Hurricane Center said that prior hurricane Barbara continues to weaken as it moves inland, but is also dumping heavy rain across portions of southeastern Mexico. The State of Chiapas has recorded 16 inches of rain. Now just a tropical storm, it is not expected to gain strength again unless the center of the storm which has pretty much dissipated reacts from entering the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Unless the storm intensifies again, there will be no further need to report on this storm.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

2 People Die Before Barbara Downgrades to a Tropical Storm

After the center of the storm passed over land, the storm has weakened. Wind speed is now 50 MPH, moving in a North-Northeast direction. Before it started to weaken, the storm claimed 2 lives. One of the fatalities was an American from Colorado, age 61 who died while surfing at Playa Azul, a beach near the resort town of Puerto Escondido. Barbara made landfall at mid-afternoon as a Category 1 hurricane about 120 miles to the east. The director of civil defense for Oaxaca state, Manuel Maza Sanchez claims the man was dragged out by waves kicked up by Barbara and then he was battered against a shore. The second fatality was a 26 year old Mexican man who drowned in the nearby city of Pinotepa Nacional while trying to cross a rain-swollen creek. Farther to the east where the hurricane came on shore, 14 fishermen set out to sea Wednesday morning in the town of Tapanatepec, Oaxaca, and have been reported missing.
Even with the weakening of the storm, flooding has taken its toll. Back on May 23, the National Hurricane Center said the odds were that there would be a below-normal hurricane season for the eastern Pacific for this year, but already Tropical storm Alvin and Now Hurricane Barbara have developed, in the very first week of the season. To this point, no major storms have developed from the Atlantic waters, but the Atlantic Hurricane season is just around the corner, as it begins on June 1.
Even though Hurricane Barbara was not a very strong hurricane, it made landfall farther east than any other Pacific hurricane since 1966. Usually such storms form closer to the resort of Acapulco, to the west.
If things go as they are at present, the storm will dissipate well before it reaches the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and will just be a rain system well before reaching the oil port of Coatzacoalcos.

Hurricane Barbara - 1st Hurricane of the Pacific Season



The now confirmed Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 MPH, is barreling down towards a sparsely populated area of Mexico's southern Pacific coast. It is expected to hit land later today. In the state of Oaxaca, emergency shelters are being prepared and now classes are being suspended for school children for the rest of the week, while the heavy rains begin ahead of the storm. Presently, the storm is located about 65 miles east southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico. Hopes are that the storm will weaken before reaching Coatacoalcos, a major oil port that can be effected if the storm doesn't drop in intensity. A possibility is that Barbara may just run through the land masses without slowing down. Presently at a Category 1 Hurricane, hopes are that it will at least weaken when the center of the storm reaches land. If the storm reaches a Category 2, then it may extend into the Gulf of Mexico before it has a chance to weaken, and if that happens, all bets are off as to if and when the storm will weaken. If it continues on it's present projected path, the U.S. city that would be affected if the storm makes its way in the Gulf and strengthens again may be Houston Texas.

Strongest Typhoons in History "Top Five"

In the Western Pacific, the top five strongest typhoons to ever develop were back in the 1960's and 1970's. They caused extensive damage to land that happened to be in their paths. Many claim their strengthening nature to be because of global warming, but the fact is that since then there hasn't been any more devastating storms in the Western Pacific then these five storms. Further explanation regarding the five storms and typhoons can be found in the following video. 



 

How do the Typhoons Develop in the Western Pacific?

When Is Typhoon Season Most Active?

Originally Published on July 11, 2012   by  in Featured Slider, General Post


From Stats taking over the Last 50 Years it is fairly easy to see that Typhoon Season in the Western Pacific really begins to pick up in late summer early autumn. This is the time of year wind shear becomes the most relaxed in the western pacific as the Jet Stream lifts North. Also sea surface temperatures are at there warmest after a full summer has baked the pacific Ocean.
Unlike other basins though you can see in the chart below even in the winter months the risk of Typhoons still persist. Most likely around the Philippines and in to the South  China Sea.

Indian Monsoon and Invest 94B near Bangladesh

In the Bay of Bengal there is still a low pressure area that has been lingering just of coast of Bangladesh.  This area is doing a few things; some in the short term and some in the long term. In the short term it is bringing heavy showers to coastal areas in Bangladesh, India and Burma along with the risk of flooding.   There is a continued threat of this organizing further as well. Yet due to its close proximity to land and dry air inflow from the west if it does make it to a weak Tropical Storm equivalent intensity it would be short lived.  The larger threat is that what it is doing in the long term,  setting off the South West Monsoon.  By June 1st those in Eastern India will begin to feel the affects of the monsoon which has already officially started over the Bay of Bengal.  Thankfully it will also start to cool down along with the rains.  Its been quite hot here recently actually. In Chennai you saw your warmest temperatures in 6 years on Monday.  The cloudy skies and rain showers though by next week will cause the temperatures to ease off. Regardless of whether the storm gains strength or not, the people are prepared as much as possible for the annual monsoons. It seems to be just a way of life in this part of the world.

Tropcial Storm Barbara Gaining Strength with 65 MPH winds

File:BayPAngel1.JPG
View of the wharf of Puerto Angel, Oaxaca

The storm named Barbara is continuing to gain strength as it approaches Mexico. There have been hurricane warnings issued for an area along the coast. The issue is for an area from Puerto Angel (shown above) to Barra de Tonala located in an area in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Barra De Tonalo is a place with a very small population in the state/region of Veracruz-Llave, Mexico which is located in the continent/region of North America. Cities, towns and places near Barra De Tonala include Tonala, Cuauhtemoczin, Tonala and La Azucena. The closest major cities include Coatzacoalcos, Villahermosa, Tuxtia Gutierrez and Veracruz.
The maximum sustained winds of this storm is now 65 MPH (100 kph) and is expected to continue to gain strength before eye of the storm finally reaches shore in a few hours as a full fledged hurricane. But as it moves inland, Hurricane Barbara is expected to loose strength. All of the computer weather models show the storm loosing strength and expected to dissipate prior to moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
Those are expectations, but it is not known for sure how soon the storm will start to weaken.
Presently, the weather is still considered a tropical storm, but it is fully expected to become the first hurricane of the Pacific Hurricane season, which starts one week earlier than the Atlantic Hurricane season which begins this Sunday, June 1, 2013.

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

It's Official ! ! ! Tropical Storm Barbara is Born and Strengthening

It's official...  Tropical Storm Barbara is now on the map. Warnings have been issued for coastal areas in the southernmost parts of Mexico after the storm formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean.  Presently, the storm is located about 120 miles south-southwest of Salina Cruz, Mexico.
At this point, the storm has a maximum sustained winds of 45 MPH and moving in a north-northeast direction at a maximum speed of 3 MPH.
Predictions by forecasters say that the storm is expected to strengthen over the next day or two. The center of the storm should reach the southern Mexico coast in mid-day on Wednesday.

A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Mexico from Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan. Southern Oaxaca, Mexico should receive between 3 and 6 inches of rain.

Because the storm is expected to strengthen over the next day or so, it is still not definite what will actually happen if and when the storm reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Presently, the storm after strengthening should weaken by the time it reaches the gulf. Expected sustained winds should drop to 35 MPH. If the storm strengthens, then alerts for the U.S. Coastline will be issued.

Tropical Storm BARBARA Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 290235
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE EVEN SHOWN AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 35 KT AT 0000 UTC...BUT THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SUFFICIENTLY SINCE THAT TIME TO START
WITH AN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

A LITTLE BIT OF RELOCATION OF THE CENTER WAS REQUIRED BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE DATA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT BARBARA NOW HAS A
MOTION OF 030/3 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
CENTER OF BARBARA INLAND ALONG THE SHORE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT BARBARA IS EMBEDDED IN A NARROW
ZONE OF NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE IS OVER EXTREMELY WARM
WATER ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.  GIVEN THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF BARBARA...ITS RELATIVELY SMALL INNER CORE...AND THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...A FAIRLY STEEP INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE STORM REACHES THE
COAST.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FOLLOWING A TREND OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN
THE VERY SHORT-TERM...AND BRINGS BARBARA TO 55 KT IN 12 HOURS. 
BARBARA COULD GAIN A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST...BUT TIME WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.  QUICK WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF BARBARA AND ITS REMNANTS...AS
WELL AS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN AND NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA...THE
BIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 14.5N  95.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 15.3N  95.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 16.7N  94.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/1200Z 17.9N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN




Invest 93E Graduates to Tropical Depression TWO-E

The Invest storm that is approaching Mexico is now categorized a Tropical Depression, known as TWO-E. This storm has maximum sustained winds of 35 MPH. If and when the storm reaches 39 MPH, the name will be changed to Tropical Storm Barbara. Below is the 5-day cone where the storm will approach Mexico and cut through it and enter the Gulf of Mexico. There is a good chance that the storm may dissipate prior to reaching the Gulf of Mexico. The direct path shows the storm going through Oasaca and Veracruz-LLave. Further reports regarding this storm is forthcoming.




[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

[Image of probabilities of tropical storm force winds]

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Climatology | Names | Wind Scale | Extremes | Models | Breakpoints
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane's sustained wind speed. This scale estimates potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous, however, and require preventative measures. In the western North Pacific, the term "super typhoon" is used for tropical cyclones with sustained winds exceeding 150 mph.
CategorySustained WindsTypes of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
174-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
296-110 mph
83-95 kt
154-177 km/h
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3
(major)
111-129 mph
96-112 kt
178-208 km/h
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4
(major)
130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5
(major)
157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
More Information




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Indian Monsoon and Invest 94B near Bangladesh

The following is a report as reported by westernpacificweather.com

In the Bay of Bengal, there is a low pressure area that has been lingering just of coast of Bangladesh. This area is doing a few things; some in the short term and some in the long term. In the short term it is bringing heavy showers to coastal areas in Bangladesh, India and Burma along with the risk of flooding. There is a continued threat of this organizing further as well. Yet due to its close proximity to land and dry air inflow from the west if it does make it to a weak Tropical Storm equivalent intensity it would be short lived. The larger threat is that what it is doing in the long term, setting off the South West Monsoon. By June 1st those in Eastern India will begin to feel the affects of the monsoon which has already officially started over the Bay of Bengal. Thankfully it will also start to cool down along with the rains. Its been quite hot here recently actually. In Chennai you saw your warmest temperatures in 6 years on Monday. The cloudy skies and rain showers though by next week will cause the temperatures to ease off.






90% Chance of Tropical Storm Formation off of Mexican Coast

The storms in the Pacific off of the Mexican coast continue to progress, as now there is a 90 percent chance that at least one of those storms will turn into a tropical storm, to be named Barbara. The stronger of the storms, now known as pre-Barbara, INVEST 92E is hovering along the Mexican coastline. When weather forecasters on your local news talk about hurricane data or the possible formation of a hurricane, tropical storm, or tropical depression, they may use the term 'invest'.

So what does the term 'invest' actually mean?

The National Weather Service defines an invest storm as an area of weather that has gained the interest of a hurricane or tropical storm system forecast organization (like theNational Hurricane Center).
It’s the type of storm that will spur the collection of data for further research by government organizations that help monitor and observe the weather.
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.  Source






Monday, May 27, 2013

POST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN

The first Western Pacific storm of the season happened to develop and dissipate prior to the formation of this blog, but it is worth while reporting it. The Tropical Storm was named Alvin. All tropical storms worldwide regardless of strength for 2013 will be reported on this blog in real time. Noted below, there were 8 advisories on the storm, that developed winds up to 50 MPH on Thursday, May 16, 2013. The storm was short lived, as it finally dissipated in less than 2 days.


Tropical Storm Barbara - 60% Chance for Development


The odds have been bumped up a little that the development of a tropical storm that is now located just a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will become a tropical cyclone in approximately 48 hours. Even though the storm is still not yet defined, it does promise allot of rain along the Mexican coastline. Actually the storm is right on course with development to become tropical storm Barbara when the winds reach 39 MPH and presently there is a high chance of this reality.
The name Barbara has been used for two tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean in the past. Five were located in the Eastern pacific Ocean, one tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific Ocean, two in the Southwest Indian Ocean, and one finally in the South Pacific Ocean.


The following is the report issued by the NWS (National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla.)

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS YET OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND INTERESTS IN THAT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
NNNN

Sunday, May 26, 2013

Tropical Storm Barbara - 40% Chance for Development

Now there is a 40% chance that specific development will turn into either depressions or tropical storms pending on the continuous development of the envirnment from this point on. Actually, there are two areas , one which is south of the GUlf of Tehuantepec, now at that 40% chance of developing into a tropical storm. It is of the most concern because of where it is located in respect to the land mass around it. There is an extreemly good chance that this storm may become more organized and develop to a major concern as early as Tuesday. The second storm just located to the west of the more serious storm, only has about a 20% chance of developing, but the combination of the two storms will produce lots of rain, and maybe flooding is parts of Mexico. If the storm develops any further and given a name, it will be called Barbara. The 2013 East Pacific Storm names are as follows, considering that Alvin has already been used.

2013 East Pacific Storms

Barbara
Cosme
Dalila
Erick
Flossie
Gil
Henriette
Ivo
Juliette
Kiko Lorena
Manuel
Narda
Octave
Priscilla
Raymond
Sonia
Tico
Velma
Wallis
Xina York
Zelda

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Weather Disturbances for May 25 2013





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SYSTEMS...ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

Hurricane Preparedness Week

Preparedness Week | Hazards | Watches & Warnings | Be Ready
History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster.
Hurricane hazards come in many forms, including storm surge, heavy rainfall, inland flooding, high winds, tornadoes, and rip currents. The National Weather Service is responsible for protecting life and property through issuance of timely watches and warnings, but it is essential that your family be ready before a storm approaches. Furthermore, mariners should be aware of special safety precautions when confronted with a hurricane.
Download the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide (PDF) or follow the links for more information. But remember, this is only a guide. The first and most important thing anyone should do when facing a hurricane threat is to use common sense.
National Hurricane Preparedness Week 2013 runs from May 26th through June 1st.
OVERVIEWHURRICANE HAZARDSFORECASTPREPAREACT
BasicsStorm SurgeWindsInland FloodingForecast ProcessGet A Plan!Take Action
Hurricane BasicsStorm Surge & Marine SafetyHigh Winds & TornadoesInland FloodingForecast ProcessGet a PlanTake Action
Sunday
26 May '13

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Monday
27 May '13
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Tuesday
28 May '13
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Wednesday
29 May '13
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Thursday
30 May '13
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Friday
31 May '13
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Saturday
1 June '13

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National Hurricane Preparedness Week 2013 Poster
Click to Download Poster

(also available in Spanish)

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Storm Names for 2013


The following names have been chosen for tropical storms list this year....

Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.

These names are reused again every six years, so these names will be used again in 2019. You may ask as to when these names are actually assigned to specific storm formations. The rule of thumb is that the weather formation must reach top winds within the storm of 39 mph or higher. Then the storm transforms into a hurricane when the maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 MPH. If all of the names are used for the year, then the Greek alphabet is used if there are more than 21 named storms in a season. That last happened in 2005; six storms were named Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon and Zeta.