Monday, May 27, 2013

Tropical Storm Barbara - 60% Chance for Development


The odds have been bumped up a little that the development of a tropical storm that is now located just a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will become a tropical cyclone in approximately 48 hours. Even though the storm is still not yet defined, it does promise allot of rain along the Mexican coastline. Actually the storm is right on course with development to become tropical storm Barbara when the winds reach 39 MPH and presently there is a high chance of this reality.
The name Barbara has been used for two tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean in the past. Five were located in the Eastern pacific Ocean, one tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific Ocean, two in the Southwest Indian Ocean, and one finally in the South Pacific Ocean.


The following is the report issued by the NWS (National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla.)

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS YET OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND INTERESTS IN THAT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
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