Saturday, June 29, 2013

Invest 96E Chances are Good to Develop into a Major Tropical Storm

Invest 96E exists off of the Mexico coastline with a 90 percent chance of a tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has published the following bulletin....... 

WTPN21 PHNC 282000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 104.5W TO 17.6N 105.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 104.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8N 104.3W, 
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED UNDERNEATH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 281503Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND INDICATES FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 281601Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED 15-20 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW (5 TO 10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO THE NCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
292000Z.//
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