Monday, June 17, 2013

Possible Cyclone Formation East of the Philippines

WTPN21 PGTW 162200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 127.6E TO 18.7N 126.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 162130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 127.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED, CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 161851Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SOUTH QUADRANT WITH A BROAD LLCC. A 161544Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATED AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR 21N 127E. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172200Z.//

                POSSIBLE FORMATION EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
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