Thursday, June 27, 2013

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 Issued at 27/1930Z - North Western Pacific

WTPN21 PGTW 271930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 130.8E TO 13.1N 126.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271452Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 131.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 509 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILLIPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BROAD, A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS CONSOLIDATING BENEATH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN PALAU AND MINDANAO. A 271106Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, BUT IMPROVING, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AROUND THE WESTERN QUADRANT AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 271452Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS. A 271800Z NEARBY SHIP REPORT INDICATED 230 WINDS AT 20 KNOTS AND 1006.9 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY INCREASING, BUT STILL MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, POSSIBLY INCREASING ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 281930Z.
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