Thursday, June 20, 2013

Tropical Depression Five making Waves towards China

Back on Tuesday, I reported another storm cell west of the Philippines. Just a few hours ago, the storm intensified and now known as Tropical Depression Five
The center of the storm is located in the South China Sea heading in a northwestern direction towards China. It is raining in the Philippines presently, but as the storm moves to the Northwest, the rains will stop. There will be no such luck for China and Vietnam though. Presently the storm is producing 30 MPH winds with 40 mph gusts. In less than 12 hours the tropical storm will slightly intensify to approximately 36 MPH winds with 46 MPH gusts. A tropical storm may develop as it may continue to intensify but not forecast at this time. Heavy rains will begin for mainland China and landfall looks to be through Leizhou Bay just north of Haikou. The storm may weaken slightly as it moves through the Bay and onto land, but it will reappear back in the South China Sea and pick up strength again. It should remain as Tropical Depression Five throughout its life, will little chance of gaining more strength and become a named storm. As long as the storm does not gain strength in the South China Sea, it will never receive another name. Forecasters presently show that the storm will enter the mainland of China's most southern providence of Hainan, far southwest of Taiwan , and  again centered over Zbenzhu Harbor at Hainan Island, creating heavy rains well to the north and west of Thai Nguyen. The storm will again loose strength when again entering land on the China and Vietnam border, but not before dumping several inches of rain and causing minor coastal flooding from Macau, all the way south to Haiphong of Vietnam. There are a total of eight major cities and ten counties located in Hainan province that will be affected, but the effects will be even more widespread. As long as the storm keeps on its present course, the major cities to be affected will be Wenchang, Qionghai, Wanning, Wuzhishan, Dongfang and Danzhou that are known at this time. More predictions can be made regarding cities to be affected within the next 12 to 24 hours. 

Tropical Depression FIVE






Tropical Depression FIVE and Tropical Storm LEEPI

From the Joint Tropical Warning Center (JTWC)

WTPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 117.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 
212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
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