Wednesday, July 31, 2013

New Tropical Storm JEBI - Pointing to HAINAN from the Philippines

A new storm known as Tropical Storm JEBI is now located between the Philippines and Hainan in the South China Sea, to the South East of HaNoi. This storm is moving very slowly, and has a bit of time to pick up strength before it reaches land. The forward motion is only 5 MPH, but it is already packing winds of 40 MPH with wind gusts of 50 MPH. Luckily, the Chinese mainland, including Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan are to the north of the forecasters track of this storm. Because of its slow forward motion, the storm is still having effect on the Philippines, as strong monsoonal moisture streams and even some landslides are affecting the country, mainly around the areas of Jebi to Visayas and Western Luzon. High waves have been one of the major threats from the system in the Philippines. The storm is expected to make landfall on late Friday going into Saturday, and China will also experience high waves from 2-4m high.




































Flossie Disappears after Short Show North of Hawaii

Tropical storm FLOSSIE came out of the gate making forecasters think that it would be the storm of the year for the Pacific. But during the entire life of Flossie, the storm was fighting upper level winds that would eventually throw if off course and eventually break it apart. Flossie originally was heading straight to Hawaii, but when it finally arrived in the area, it strayed to the north of the islands and provided some winds and rains to the islands. The storm rolls through Hawaii on Monday and lasted merely a day. There are no reported fatalities or major injuries from the storm. As it passed through the islands on Tuesday, the storm no longer had its well defined center or any type of organization. Eventually the storm diminished. Flossie is gone.

Monday, July 29, 2013

Flossie Over the Hawaii Islands In the Next Few Hours

The world does know about a tropical storm named FLOSSIE. This storm is located in the Pacific, and looks to be on the attack of the Hawaiian Islands.
But at the present time, even knowing that such a storm is eminent for the islands, there can be 'not yet named' fronts that people not affected by the storms do not know about. There is a percentage of tropical storms that affect land that are never even really reported by NOAA and may even get overlooked. One such storm, actually still a tropical depression continues to bring heavy rain showers across the Philippines, which most likely will trigger flash floods and landslides.
Flossie on the other hand, should continue northwest and enter the South China Sea and make landfall in China soon. This part of the world is being hammered by tropical weather this year. Taiwan, China, Japan, Vietnam and other countries in the region have been hit pretty hard this year already as we are barely halfway through the season of severe tropical weather.
As mentioned earlier in this article, a tropical storm named Flossie is heading straight for the Hawaiian Islands. Unfortunately for the very same area of the world recently hit by severe tropical weather, to include China, Taiwan, Japan and Vietnam, may have to prepare for yet another storm. Flossie, had originated off of the Mexican coastline and has been moving steadily across the Pacific towards Hawaii. The storm is approximately 150+ miles from the major island with present wind speeds of 50 mph and wind gusts at 65 mph. the barometric pressure is falling, now at 999 MB. After ravaging the Hawaiian islands, the forecasters seem to believe that the storm will continue on to the South China Sea, and then begin a journey towards China. If this happens, Flossie may become one of the longest lasting storms of the season, and there may even be a chance for the storm to intensify. Below is a map with the present position of the storm, along with its immediate predicted forward path.
Again, we are lucky that the storm hasn't already intensified, as it has had plenty of time to do so. All you can do is keep your fingers crossed on this one.


Sunday, July 28, 2013

Tropical Storm FLOSSIE heading towards HAWAII

Tropical Storm Flossie is located in the Eastern Pacific, and it looks as if it is now aiming at the Hawaiian Islands. Presently, the storm is located at least 1000 miles from any known land mass. This tropical front is expected to bring very heavy rains, along with heavy winds that will take place on the islands. There is approximately a 100% certainty that the storm will hit Hawaii. Further updates of this storm as it approaches the islands will be forthcoming.

Invest 90W Brings Heavy Rains to Southeastern China and Vietnam

A tropical disturbance, now known as Invest 90W, now located East of the Hainan Province in China, is dumping heavy rains and thunderstorms over parts of Vietnam and southeastern China. This front is not expected to strengthen at this time, and this is just a note acknowledging the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm DORIAN Deminishes to a Depression

As expected, tropical storm Dorian is continuing to weaken because of wind shear and dry air that is causing the storm not to stay organized. Presently, the storm is now just a tropical wave with winds below 40 MPH.  Besides the gusty winds, the storm is still producing rain. Another low to form off of the Africa coast is expected soon, but at this time, there really is no further reason to comment on Dorian unless it picks up strength again as it moves near Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and possibly near the Bahamas. Even though I will no longer report on this storm unless it gets stronger, I will watch this storm and report any increase in strength.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Invest 99L - 500 miles from the East U.S. Coastline

Invest 99L, approximately 500 miles from the east coast of the United States, is running in an almost northerly direction. It is directly east of North Carolina, but is not expect to run anywhere near the U.S. coast. The present wind speed is 25 MPH and forward travel speed is approximately 15 MPH. Unless this storm gains a name or is threatening any land mass, this will be the last report on this storm.

Tropical Storm Flossie - 6th Pacific Storm of the Season

The sixth tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific for 2013 now has a name, FLOSSIE. This storm is moving west, away from the Mexico mainland. You may wonder why some storm names are used more than others. For this specific name, it has been used for one tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean, five tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and nine tropical cyclones in the western Pacific. There even was a Hurricane Flossy in 1956. The most recent Hurricane Flossie was a storm that passed near Hawaii. In the late 50's, one of the storms affected Japan in 1958, another struck China in 1964, another approached Taiwan in 1969 and another to hit southern China in 1975.
The latest to occur prior to present day, Flossie of 2007 came within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands. Like Dorian, Flossie of 2007 originated off of the coast of Africa and reached its peak wind speed of 140 MPH (220km/h). It only produced a maximum of 6 inches of rain to the island at worst case, but again the storm passed by at least 100 miles away from the islands. It was a Category 4 hurricane for 36 continuous hours and it seemed that the storm would never weaken. Even wind shear didn't phase it. But eventually it was too loose, as they all eventually do, when they reach cooler waters and/or receive a large amount of wind shear. The storm dissipated when it was located south of the Hawaiian Islands.
Again, it is too early to tell what effect Flossie can have on land, as there is no definite prediction regarding its path. Further updates can be found right here as they happen.

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Dorian Continues West in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm DORIAN, now traveling across the Atlantic appears that it will survive the ocean at least making it until it reaches the Dominican Republic. Dorian is the 4th named Atlantic tropical storm since the beginning of the hurricane season on June 1. But if you remember last year, the last storm to show its face last year turned up late, and turned into a super storm name Sandy.  So even though the storm season this year failed to produce a bad storm, it is just too early to tell if this is going to be a year of no major storms like Sandy. So far, the verdict is out as far as Dorian is concerned, but forecasters are watching this one very closely, as this one began its journey off of the Cape Verde Islands, a known tropical weather birthplace responsible for so many tropical storms that have affected the U.S. in a big way.
One, maybe two forecasts show the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by Monday of next week. Others have the storm tracking to the north prior to reaching the east coast and not affect the U.S. at all. Again, it is too early to tell, but I will be reporting on this storm a few times a day, especially when this storm creates news. By the time it reaches the Dominican Republic, the storm will have increased strength to become a Category 1 hurricane. While traveling across the Atlantic, the storm will experience wind shear that should weaken the storm somewhat, and may be able to kill it altogether.
Presently there are 3 storms brewing around the world. Any one of them has the potential of growing into a major tropical storm. Updates on Dorian can be found right here on this site daily.

Invest99L Nearing Burmuda

A new weather front that forecasters are watching is one located approximately 350 miles to the South East of Burmuda. This system is now called INVEST 99L.
Projections show the storm heading to the west towards the United States, but then turning very quickly to the north. It is not expected to travel near the United States, It is traveling at a forward speed of only 10 MPH, only half the speed as Dorian, but is now spinning with winds of approximately 25MPH. There stands a good chance that this front will turn into a tropical depression soon, and if so, it will be named Tropical Depression 'Five'.  As soon as it reaches a wind speed of 39 MPH, it will gain the 5th 2013 Atlantic Season storm name of ERIN.

Invest 98L Now Tropical Storm DORIAN

The new storm to watch used to be called Invest98L. Within a period of 24 hours, the storm advanced to a tropical depression called 'FOUR'. Now the storm has advanced once again to Tropical Storm DORIAN. Dorian is the 4th named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The path of the storm has the storm shooting towards the Caribbean Sea, namely heading towards the Dominican Republic. It is presently moving to the west at approximately 20 MPH, with a location approximately 200 miles to the west of Cape Verde islands. The wind speed within the storm is a steady 50 mph, with wind gusts rising to 65 MPH. The storm appears to be advancing faster than people would like it to. Many were counting on wind shear to actually slow the progress of the storm, both in size and in speed. The storm is moving at a good pace and if all calculations are correct, the storm will make it to the Caribbean sea in just a few days.

Exactly were it may be heading can be projected within the next 48 hours but most predict that it will turn to the north and travel up the east coast. My guess would be that it has a very good chance to enter the gulf, and if it does, all bets are off. By the time it gets in the gulf region, we may already know the strength and damages it can cause if it enters the Gulf. None of the models really predict any type of landfall at this time, but if the storm stays on its present course, the storm will produce lots of rains and winds for a country near the United States, or for mainland U.S. itself. Please return soon to read more updates on this storm.

Monday, July 22, 2013

Invest 98L off the Coast of Africa

Another storm is organizing, known as Invest 98L. This is a storm that the United States may be concerned about, as it has developed off of the coast of Africa and now heading west at 10-15 MPH, and has a 10-15 knot wind shear. Wind shear is a good thing, because it is what causes the storm to become disorganized and does not let the storm to continue to develop into a stronger storm. However, the weather front has the entire Atlantic ocean to travel, and if it stays together and continues in its present direction, it will have an effect on the United States. At the moment, the ocean water temperatures are perfect for spawning a storm, however in a few days, the wind shear is expected to increase, which should definitely affect the strength of the storm, or whether it can stay together or not. The computer models now predict that the front will only have a 10% chance by Wednesday to develop into a tropical storm and forecasters do not have much faith that it will grow into a major storm. If anything at all will come out of this storm, there may be heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the end of the week. 

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Typhoon Morakot - 2009 Season Storm

Everyone in Taiwan  has recent memories of Typhoon Soulik. It was a devastating storm, but people who lived through Typhoon Morakot just 4 years ago in 2009 may tell you that Soulik doesn't compare to Morakot. Statistics confirm that Typhoon Morakot was one of the worst storms to hit Taiwan in recorded history formed on August 2, 2009 as a tropical depression and was named Morakot by the Japanese Meteorological Agency just one day later on August 3. Two days later on August 5, it was upgraded to a Typhoon. Early on August 7, the storm attained its peak intensity with winds of 140 km/h (85 mph 10-minute sustained) according to the JMA. The JTWC reported the storm to be slightly stronger, with winds peaking at 150 km/h (90 mph 1-minute sustained), the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale. The storm affected S. Korea, Philippines, China, Japan, the Okinawa Prefecture and of course Taiwan.  The remnants of the typhoon eventually dissipated on August 11 as it passed through the China mainland.
The casualties rose to 461 dead and 192 missing and the cost rose to 3.3 billion U.S. dollars or NT$110 billion. A record 109.3 inches (2,777 mm) of rain fell, topping a previous record of 68.35 inches (1,736 mm). I can't imagine a rainfall in Texas U.S.A. of 109.3 inches. In China (Fujian province) there were 8 people killed because of Morakot, and costing 1.4 billion dollars. Approximately 50,000 soldiers had to assist in finding trapped or missing people in Taiwan alone. It took 3 years of reconstruction to redevelop the area.
As mentioned, Morakot affected the Philippines. Twenty-six people from the Philippines were killed in this storm.
As a result of Morakot, there were several mudslides, some noted in Taiwan. In Shiao Lin, three hundred people were rescued as an entire town was covered by the mudslide but several remained missing. The people saved by the mudslides were rescued by helicopters. Heavy rains triggered a massive landslide in Pengxi, a town in Wenzhou city of eastern China's Zhejian province, and destroyed seven three-story apartment buildings at the foot of a mountain.
It is almost unbelievable what residents of Taiwan and China have dealt with in the past, knowing all too well that it can happen all over again.

Tropical Weather Front - Invest 98L

Now located in the Eastern Pacific, there is a weather front which is now called Invest 98L. This low front is located off the coast Acapulco Mexico. According to the forecast models, all possible tracks are to the west, traveling away from the coast. This storm should not pose any real threat to the U.S. mainland or Mexico. Further development of this weather system will be reported when it happens.

Saturday, July 20, 2013

Looking back to the Busiest Hurricane Record Year in History

Which year would you suspect be the most active Atlantic hurricane season in recent recorded history?

Some may think back before 2000, but actually the year of 2005 was the most active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history. There were almost 4,000 deaths, with damages estimating to be almost $160 billion dollars.

There were seven recorded storms that were considered major, but five of these storms were responsible for most of the deaths and destruction. The storms were Emily, Rita, Wilma, Dennis, and last but not least, Katrina. Two of the states, Texas and Louisiana experienced 2 major storms that year.
So far this year, no major storms....    How can one year have so many and then another have none?  Hopefully, you do not truly believe that the United States will not experience a hurricane this year.

With the temperatures heating up, I would expect to see more tropical weather systems this season. The water temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific, especially in the Gulf of Mexico are at their highest, ever. This can only spell disaster when it comes to storms entering the Gulf of Mexico.

One of the storms mentioned above, Katrina, turned out to be a Category 3 storm that actually entered land
twice. It appeared in a year not only that was full of storms for the season that effected the United States,
it was a year that began two months before the beginning of the hurricane season. A stated fact in a prior article is that most hurricanes that attack the U.S. normally are born off of the coast of Africa. For the most part that is true, but with hurricane Katrina, it got it's birth near the Bahamas, very close to the United States mainland, just East of Florida and North of Puerto Rico, which was an Atlantic storm.



It was tragic that so many people lost their lives because of Katrina. The storm surge from the Gulf, the rains, floods, and high winds took many by surprise. Many of the people who experienced Katrina never experienced a storm of this magnitude or one with such killer force. Some of these people, ones that have witnessed tropical storm fury left the area, knowing full well what could happen, but some of those same people who witnessed it before decided to stay and ride out this storm called Katrina just because they wanted to 'protect' their home.    Katrina won. Unfortunately so many people died, and many not a direct result of direct contact of the storm. Many perished because one of flood water because a dam broke and flooded the lower reaches of the North Bank, in many areas above rooftops.
Actually the hurricane entered land in Waveland, Mississippi, as some people may not know that fact. Checkout a video of a few people stuck in a home that is overcome with floods. Regardless of how much they wanted to stay back and protect there home, the water gods still entered the home, and the water kept rising. Observe three residents of the home, as they watch helplessly, as the water rises in the home.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=_YP6WNRq5VY

Friday, July 19, 2013

No Tropical Storms at the Moment around the Globe

So far today, the weather around the globe has been calm. There are no storms to report. Only one storm front began its path from the waters off of the coast of Africa so far this year. This starting point for a storm is usually the starting point for all of the major Gulf of Mexico storms.
Finally the countries of Japan, Philippines and China can rest a while. The storm season is not over, but any amount of calm in the ocean waters is great.
But what is alarming is that this year is already being recorded as the 5th warmest year since around 1880, over 130 years ago. The fact is that warm weather is the biggest factor for tropical storms developing in the oceans. Just a percentage point of rising from the previous year would make for a more active year than the year before.  Another factor is that many countries that usually see tropical weather from year to year have not seen this repeated weather. If the weather runs in cycles, then there may be a few countries that should be on the lookout for tropical storms that don't usually see them on a regular basis.
The 64 million dollar question, where will the next big storm hit?!!!!
It can be anyones guess. The weather forecasters can only predict an actual storm after it has been born. The path, speed, and strength of the storm can be calculated by formulas proven to provide accurate information.
The downfall about knowing about such storms is that no-one has been able to find a way to calm them down once they are born. They just ravish the globe whenever and wherever they want, and so far, there is nothing anyone can do about it. Wouldn't it be nice to be able to disrupt a storm after it is born to stop it in its tracks. Then it may be possible that tropical storms would become extinct. That would mean no hurricanes, no cyclones, no typhoons and thousands upon thousands of people would not perish is such storms.
Ok, enough wishful thinking. Be on the lookout here for the next report on tropical storms, hopefully not another in your area.

Tropical Storm Cimaron now Dissipated- Coasts are now Clear !

Tropical Storm Cimaron made landfall on Thursday Afternoon and made a maximum sustained winds of 40 MPH/64.8MPH. When it reached the coast, the storm was approximately 202 miles/326 km east-northeast of Hong Kong. There were shallow rain bands wrapped around a well defined center, according to the radar at Shantou, China.

There was a considerable amount of rain from this storm, but no major damage is known at this time. The storm quickly dissipated once it was moving over land. There will be no further notices on Cimaron.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Tropical Storm CIMARON Reaches the China Coast

CIMARON quickly tracked across the northeastern tip of Luzon, Philippines early on July 17 and was forecast to make landfall in eastern China approximately 200 nautical miles (230 miles/370 km) northeast of Hong Kong. This storm is right on track, and has now approached the China mainland entering Guangdong Province. This storm should be short lived, as it will be completely off of open water within hours. The storm has stirred up waves as high as 14 feet in the China Sea. Tiawan will feel minor effects of this storm, but this storm is bearing down on Chaozhou which is where the center of the storm is expected to enter the mainland. The storm is expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression soon, and an update will be coming shortly. This is a fairly mild storm, no where in destructive capabilities as the last storm that ravished Tiawan. But nevertheless, some people will be tragically affected and some may even die. Another report will be here shortly.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Tropical Storm CIMERON Now Located between the Philippines and Mainland China

Good News! Invest 97L has apparently dissipated. The storm cell was located in a west central location in the Gulf of Mexico, but the cell appears to have weakened to be of no concern. 

There is also good news concerning Tropical Storm CIMERON, now located half way between the Philippines and the China mainland. The storm is now spinning at its maximum expected strength of 45 MPH, but the wind gusts are now at 60 MPH. The storm should be at the same strength as it enters Guangdong province north of Hong Kong but should rapidly loose speed once on land and the storm should be downgraded to a tropical depression.  Cities from Quanzhou to the north and Shenzhen to the south should feel the effects of this storm, but it should be in the form of rain and wind and minor storm surge . The storm is moving in a forward direction at a speed of 18 MPH. 

Presently, there are no other storms of concern originating from the South China sea at this time, nor is there anything of any concern near the gulf of Mexico.

Weather front in the Gulf of Mexico

There is an area of rotation with very slow movement located in the Gulf of Mexico. The center is located about 150 miles off of the coast from Tampico Mexico. The front appears to be moving to the West and models have the storm moving into Mexico. But the front is moving very slowly at this time and actually too slow to even determine if it will ever reach land. Forecasters are watching this weather system very closely. Updates to follow.

New Tropical Storm to Miss Tiawan

As expected, the tropical depression, now running at 40 MPH has a new name. Tropical Storm CIMARON has shifted its path to a more westerly track. At the moment Tiawan seems to be safe. The storm has shifted enough and it appears that it will miss the island entirely. 
This is great news for people who have just lived through Soulik. Because the storm will miss Tiawan, the new track puts the center of the storm just to the north of Hong Kong. 
Hong Kong should feel the storms South eastern winds as it progresses into the mainland. Further updates are forthcoming.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Storm Naming Convention for Tornadoes, Cyclones and Monsoons

Why are typhoons, tornados, cyclones and monsoons given feminine names and not masculine names?

The practice of naming hurricanes solely after women came to an end in 1978 when men's and women's names were included in the Eastern North Pacific storm lists. In 1979, male and female names were included in lists for the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. 

Tropical storms and hurricanes are given names to avoid confusion when more than one storm is being followed at the same time. A storm is named when it reaches tropical storm strength with winds of 39 mph. A storm becomes a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 75 mph.

American weather agencies began assigning girls' names to major tropical storms in 1953. Apparently they got the idea from military forecasters.

Later the assigning of names for Atlantic hurricanes was turned over to the World Meteorological Organization, a UN agency, theoretically making it an international responsibility. (Naming of hurricanes in the eastern Pacific is handled through a bilateral agreement with Mexico.)

Clement Wragge, an Australian meteorologist began giving women's names to tropical storms before the end of the l9th century.

In 1953, the United States abandoned as confusing a two-year old plan to name storms by a phonetic alphabet (Able, Baker, Charlie) when a new, international phonetic alphabet was introduced. That year, this Nation's weather services began using female names for storms.

Tropical depression EIGHT, soon to be named as a new Tropical Storm Moving Towards China

So far, tropical depression 'EIGHT' looks to be promising, and doesn't appear to be a deadly storm that will affect Tiawan like Typhoon SOULIK. 

Originally, the forecast was that the storm would head directly at Tiawan, after glazing the northern coastal area of mainland Philippines. But forecasters now say that the storm will mostly pass to the west of Tiawan as it enters mainland China. Still, the strength of the 'Eight' should not strengthen to amount to much of anything at all. 

Still, with the passing of Typhoon Soulik, this storm will have a continued effect on possible continued flooding of already water soaked lands that have fallen victim to flooding and landslides. Up to 2,000,000 people have been affected by Soulik, and the last thing they need is another storm to contribute to an already catastrophe that the people must endure. 
Presently, the storm is centered over the extreme northeastern corner of the Philippines, but it is fixing to break into the complete open waters of the South China Sea. There, it will gain strength and most likely earn a name as a tropical storm. Within the next 8 hours, I would expect that this storm will be  named. Presently, the storm is moving at only 13 MPH with a wind speed of 35 MPH and gusts up to 45 MPH. The storm will be formally named when the wind speed moves up to 39 MPH, which is only 4 MPH from its present speed. 

My hopes are that when this storm nears Tiawan, that it may only produce not so heavy winds and very little rain. On it's present course, it will continue through Fujian province, an area that was hit very hard from Typhoon Soulik. The storm may decide to completely spare Tiawan as it moves to the north, and may drift further to the Northwest. If this occurs, it may enter Guangdong province and may put a direct hit on Hong Kong or Macau. Any way you look at it, there will be some effect to residents of China, and hopefully the rains and flooding will be kept to a minimum and the peoples of China can continue to endure the weather, as if there is much choice to do anything else. 

The present storm, tropical depression 'Eight' did not give Tiawan or mainland China much time to prepare for the next storm, as SOULIK has just caused major destruction throughout the areas, again affecting at least 2 million people. 

The storm is expected to only reach a maximum wind strength of 40 MPH prior to reaching mainland China, and then the forecast is for the storm to weaken as it moves over land. Wind gusts are expected to be around 50 MPH. 

So this is the present outlook for the pending storm to reach China again very soon. Unfortunately, many people in China now are without power and communications have been cut off in many areas, so the chances are that many people are not even aware that another storm is coming. 

On a personal note.....

Again, as a writer, I write this specific blog on this specific topic because of my high interest in tropical storms. Unfortunately for me, as I write these articles as I have also written another  blog before this one called 'Hurricaneprevention.net', I have come to realize the human tragedies that accompany these storms. They are on a global scale. This blog is actually fun for me to write, but it is a very sad thing to have to report so much devastation, knowing that many people affected are not even aware that this blog exists. The idea of knowing that there are still allot of people out there without any real means of knowing the upcoming weather, especially tropical storms as must be the case now in China with so many people now displaced from their homes because of Soulik, keeps me in high gear to want to continue with reporting these storms. I hope and pray that more people around the world become aware of this blog and that my articles can protect or even save lives someday. 



Devastation by Typhoon SOULIK, Hundreds Dead, 100,000 Lost Homes or Misplaced

The total number of people affected by the storm is topping 2 million. Torrential rains, floods or landslides have left more than 200 people known to be dead or missing in Northwestern China alone. In some places, the flooding has been the worst in 60 years. 

The total rainfall in other places have been the heaviest known on record.  The attached video shows the effects of such rains and flooding.  Over 100,000 people have either lost their homes or have been misplaced because of Typhoon SOULIK. 

The attached video shows the devastation, and the actual flooding and destruction as it was happening to property directly in the path of the rivers of water that were created because of the heavy rains.


Invest 97L in the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm EIGHT on Course to Tiawan

Tropical Storm EIGHT seems to be staying on path, affecting the northern mainland of the Philippines, then onto Tiawan. The storm has not changed in either strength or direction since the last update.
However, now there appears to be a new weather front named INVEST 97L that has surfaced in the Gulf of Mexico. The wind speed is at approximately 25 MPH and not much else is known about this system at this time. However it is expected to grow in strength but may not have enough time to actually grow substantially before reaching land. Storms that generally spawn in the Gulf are usually smaller storms. The storms that spawn off the coast of Africa usually have enough time to grow and become a threat as they work their way to the west.
Updates to both weather systems will be made here as soon as they are known.


Monday, July 15, 2013

India Monsoons of June Kill a Minimum of 1000 People, 5000 People Missing

It is now known that because of the monsoons which brought along flash floods and landslides that struck northern India last month is now blamed for some 6000 people, now either who have died or now is missing. Many of the missing from the Himalayan state of Uttarakhand were just washed away with the floods. Thriving villages have been totally washed away.  This all happened in the peak of the tourist season. Many of the missing are travelers and tourists.  Out of the 6000 people, at least 1000 are confirmed dead. Some of the missing have been found, but most are still missing.  The families of the dead receive compensations from state funds. For each person that was known to be killed, the government pays $8,394 dollars (500,000 rupees) to each family, which includes the same amount of money for children that were orphaned. The good news if any were to come out of all of this is that the Indian military, supported with helicopters, rescued at least 100,000 people after the disaster. Funds for some 240+ villages will also go to families to help them rebuild. 
The monsoon season re-appears every year, and finally the state government says that they will now start to build earthquake-resistant houses in what they are calling new model villages. 
The following statement is just my opinion. To me it seems so little, and too late. It's really not a matter that a model city needs to be built to prove that better housing is better for the people, because the models will surely succeed. What needs to happen is that the government must move full steam in rebuilding a resurgent country that can withstand such weather conditions each year. 

Another Storm to Hit Tiawan, This Time First Through the Philippines

As expected, the calm is not going to last..   A tropical depression, now known as 'Eight' is presently due east of the northern Philippines mainland is traveling to the Northwest. It is expected to intensify, and travel towards Taiwan. Again, the entire island of Taiwan should be engulfed in this storm by Thursday. The northeastern tip of the island should revive large amounts of rainfall and flooding may be felt from south of Illagan City as far north as Pagudpud and Laoag City



As the storm moves northwest through the South China Sea, the storm will continue towards the China mainland, going directly to Fujian province. The center of the storm is expected to be at Quanzhou, then turn to the northeast a bit and travel up the coast and possibly pick up more speed if not dissipated by then as it reaches the East China Sea. Once it is pulling moisture from the sea, it is expected to continue to the northeast and it looks to be pretty centered now to travel over North and South Korea, with the tail edges of the storm still pushing its way through Liaoning province with heavy rains and winds.  The storm will reach Korea on Thursday evening going into Friday local time.
Further details on which cites will see the worst weather from this storm will be forthcoming.


 The storm is moving rather slowing as indicated in the picture above at only 6 MPH and a wind speed of 30 MPH and gusts to 40 mph. 
The storm is expected to strengthen within the next 12 hours, and another update will be coming. 


Hundreds Dead or Missing in China



A family looks out from the top floor of a flooded building as Typhoon Soulik hits on July 14, 2013 in Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province of China. (ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images)





The damage toll is coming in. So far, there has been at least 295 dead or missing or China, the result of Typhoon Soulik. Interestingly enough, by the time the storm reached mainland China, it was only a Category 1 storm. But then you may ask yourself, 'why so many deaths'? The answer is simple, and unfortunately, there's not much that can be done about it, unless people move away to safer places. After the rainstorms and the typhoon hit China, there was flooding, landslides, and building collapses. The rains alone since July 7 caused at least 69 deaths and another 179 people missing. Another 41 people dead and a few more missing in other parts of the country because of downpours and mountain torrents. Directly attributed to SOULIK, there were at least three more killed and two missing in Guangdong province located in southern China as the storm was moving inland after ravishing Tiawan. Near Guangxi, there is a scenic area that was closed because people were killed in flash floods when a dam collapsed upstream. The economic losses are tremendous. In Zhejiang city of Wenzhou, the direct economic loss is $34 million, which equates to 210 million yuan.
Hundreds of pictures are pouring in of the damage and destruction. Here are just a few, as reported on the Huffington Post.

















Sunday, July 14, 2013

Coasts are CLEAR... Where Are The Tropical Storms Hiding Now?

The coasts are clear ???? !!   After this past week and into this past weekend, you could only hope for a break in the weather. Here locally in Dallas Texas, we now have some rain after about a week of 100 degree Fahrenheit days. On the other side of the world, there has been death and destruction from a very serious storm that entered the China mainland called Typhoon SOULIK. It has ravaged over a dozen island chains in the China Sea on the way.  Here in the United States, we can only hope and pray that we do not have the weather that China has just experienced.
Presently, there are no tropical storms to report worldwide. Tropical storm Chantel, which I thought would resurface and gain strength once again, looks to now be a dead and dormant storm. Cyclone SOULIK, now a tropical depression, is still creating havoc as a rain storm, because it is not just any rain storm.
The country of China, now experiencing heavy rains with mudslides that are wiping away towns, destroying homes and killing lives, is ravaging Southwest China at this time. Hundreds of people have been killed, many more just plain missing. Will it ever end? For now, the fierce storms of the weather gods are silent, except for the dying SOULIK. The season is nearly half over now, and heavy storms have already hit countries, such as China, Japan, and the Philippines. So there has been lots of activity out of the China seas.
How about the United States?  Fortunately to date, this year has been fairly quiet as far as tropical storms for the United States. Right from the beginning though, one storm traveled up the east coast, but luckily caused just allot of rain, and some heavy winds, but no major damages.  A few were threatening from the Gulf, but never developed. As far as the south, the Gulf Coast states have been enjoying better than expected weather there. But will it last?
The people who predict these storms would call this year a very mild year for the United States. If you think that we will not see any further bad tropical storms in the U.S. mainland, then you must believe in 'wishful thinking'. The storm season is still fairly young, and the forecasters of storms still predict a few bad tropical storms for the states. The question always are 'WHEN' and 'WHERE' and ' HOW BAD WILL IT GET' .   It's funny that people ask these questions. Noone can answer them definitively, although the forecasters know that there are several areas in the United States that are overdue for bad storms. Is it your area? Maybe! !    Maybe NOT !!  
We just don't know where the next storm will hit, but we surely can predict by observing the weather patterns around the world, when one is developing and where it may go if and when it develops.
I present this blog to you to provide all of the information you need to make the proper decisions for you to get out of the way of bad tropical weather if it is coming your way. It makes no difference where you live in the world. Yes, this blog does not report on tornadoes and other types of storms, but when it comes to tropical weather, like Hurricanes, Cyclones, and Typhoons, you can find the information you need on this blog.
Besides the actual real-time information you can find, the aftermath of such large storms can be found here in the form of stories, pictures, video and personal experiences of readers who have experienced a bad storm. If you have had a bad experience recently or even long ago about a particular tropical storm that you would like to share with the readers of this blog, all you have to do is send information to James@Hurricanefollower.com.

The Progress of Typhoon SOULIK - Now Just A Tropical Storm



Typhoon SOULIK passed over Taiwan (23 million people) with lots of rain, heavy winds, and flooding in several places. The storm has now been downgraded to a tropical storm with winds averaging at 70 MPH and wind gusts of 85 MPH. The storm is expected to slowly weaken as it moves through China in a northern direction.
Presently, Fujian province is taking the brunt of the storm, as it has now gone on-shore in mainland China, and affecting towns like Fuzhou, and Nanping, Wenzhou and several other towns along the coast. In approximately 24 hours, the storm will have gone inland to affect towns such as Jinhua, Jiujiang, Anqing, and Hefei. These towns most likely will almost take a direct hit from the storm. When the storm reaches these towns, the wind-speed should be cut in half to around 35 MPH. This is great news. The only downfall is that the storm continues to be slow moving, approximately 14-15 MPH. An over-abundance of rain will be felt in this entire area of the storm, continued flooding inland with mudslides from mountainous areas.
In the past, mudslides in many cases have caused many human casualties, as people become trapped by the mud and get buried alive. So at this point in the storm, the strength of the storm may not be a factor, but the bi-products of the storm, the excessive rain and flooding, triggering mudslides is definitely a serious factor and have already contributed to several deaths.
Prior to reaching mainland China, the storm ravaged Tiawan early Saturday morning.  The storm dumped at least 8 inches of rain on the capital city of Taipei, and topped 14 inches in the mountainous regions in less than 24 hours. There has been at least 1 known death because of the storm in Tiawan. Substantial flooding as occurred, as witness by the attached CNN video.




Prior to reaching the China mainland, there were hundreds of thousands of people evacuated from China's southeastern coast on Saturday. In Fujian province alone, there were at least 305,000 people to leave their homes. When the storm actually reached the mainland, SOULIK was running at approximately 117 kilometers per hour (73 MPH). Tiawan took allot of the punch out of the storm which was good news, but in south-central China, the heavy rains triggered flooding and landslides. Unfortunately, I am able to report that dozens of people have been killed, and there are at least 100 people missing, most likely washed away or buried by the landslides in mainland China. The missing are from Sichuan province according to officials there. As expected flights in or out of a very popular airport named Changel were cancelled, up to about 140 flights so far.

Recent torrential rains across large post of China have left 200 people dead or missing from previous weather systems.

Prior to reaching Taiwan, on July 12th a picture was taken from space on NASA's Aqua satellite. The picture below is a NASA image courtesy of Jeff Schmaltz, of the Lance/EOSDIS MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC. The storm was moving west across the Pacific Ocean on a course to strike Taiwan. As you view the picture below, imagine winds from this storm at a minimum of 100 MPH or 170 km/hr. It actually was downgraded at that time when it reached its maximum strength of 140 MPH or 230 km/hr. Observe the size of the storm, versus the size of Taiwan just to the west of the storm as it approaches the island.







Friday, July 12, 2013

Some Details of the Storm as it Barrels Through Tiawan

Weather History for Ishigaki Japan

As previously reported, an island directly in the path of the storm is Ishigaki. The following chart shows various measurements, but of main interest here is the last column called 'WIND SPEED'.  The chart highlights times in Japan Standard Time from 6:00PM through 11:00PM. 

At 10:00PM, the wind speed reported was 67.9 MPH. Just one hour later, the wind speed almost tripled to 167.8 MPH. This was just a snapshot of what is going to happen to the Island of Taiwan. 

        Taiwan Directly in the Path of SOULIK

The storm is expected to track more to the south as it moves to the west, so it should almost totally engulf Taiwan with very strong winds, similar to that of Ishigaki.  Immediately below the chart, courtesy of WesternPacificWeather.com, is a video showing actual high winds and rain explaining the activity with radar visuals as the storm runs into mainland China, while pummeling Taiwan on the way. 
Interestingly enough as highlighted in the video, the initial hit on Taiwan is not as much as a killer as what it turns into after it passes. Winds change, now coming from the Northwest hitting Taiwan with continued typhoon force winds, bringing with it rain and flooding. Winds and rain go as far inland as the mountains as Taiwan is attacked from the Northwest wave of the storm. 
Mudslides from the hills and mountains are expected to cause more damage and death. 
Actual video and pictures of many areas affected by Typhoon SOULIK will be provided on this blog as they become available. 


                 


Video of Typhoon SOULIK as it barrels through TAIWAN and heads towards mainland CHINA

Typhoon Soulik Storm Footage and Wind Reports and Forecast

Published on July 12, 2013 by  on WesternPacificWeather.com

Typhoon Soulik is making its presence felt on Friday Morning with winds reported up to 100kph in Kume a island just towards the west of Okinawa Honto. Winds already picking up in Miyako-Jima where we are anticipating winds to gust over 200kph going through Friday evening. After passing the southern Japanese islands the eye wall shown on radar will slam in to Taiwan in Yilan county. Areas north of the eye wall will face the brunt of the storm with winds up to 220kph and a storm surge around 5meters high. That is where westpacwx Author and Videographer James Reynolds has positioned himself ahead of the storm. Follow him on Twitter @typhoonfury for images and information out of the area.

Inland Taiwan will contend with heavy rainfall and landslides through Saturday as some total accumulations could reach as high as 500-700mm in the interior of the island. After the storm passes by Taiwan it will push on shore in Fujian province as a much weaker Typhoon but still carrying a large amount of rainfall inland. Flood risk will continue to be a issue here through the early part of next week.


Even farther north in Okinawa high wind gust up to 150kph and waves over 10meters high can be expected.


Downed Street Sign in Taiwan


Category 3 Strength wind gust were reported in Ishigaki during the late night hours on Friday as Typhoon SOULIK rolled south of the Japanese islands with approximately 50,000 residents. Going through Saturday the bigger threat will now shift west across Taiwan where huge waves and damaging winds have already been reported at the time of this update. Some winds strong enough to start to damage small structures in Taiwan. In Okinawa max winds were reported at 150kph on Friday. The video above is a quick overnight update with storm footage.

In short though the heaviest rains will remain in northern Taiwan especially in the mountains across the center of the country. Here we can see up to 500mm of rainfall triggering landslides and a serious risk of flash flooding. The good news is that Taiwan is not taking this storm lightly. Most schools and business were closed on Friday and several thousand villages on the east coast were evacuated prior to the storms arrival. In 2009 Taiwan was hit by a monster storm resulting in several hundred deaths, now no one wants a repeat of that.

By Saturday afternoon the storm will move in to Fujian province where heavy rains will trigger low lying flooding and test the infrastructure of this region in China.







Typhoon SOULIK Continues On Course to China























Typhoon Soulik continues to barrel towards Taiwan and the Chinese Mainland after passing the Japanese Islands of the Okinawa Province. Presently as stated on the map above, the steady winds are at 139kph with gusts at 193 kph. This is a very serious storm and is expected to reach Taiwan as a Category 2 storm and reach the mainland of China as a Category 1 storm. Shortly after entering the mainland, the storm should deteriorate , but not before it will produce tons of rain and winds. Followups after the storm which will show damage caused by the storm will follow when the information becomes available.

Tropical Storm Chantel Still Has Life

Tropical Storm CHANTEL has dissipated. However the tropical system low is now starting its move through south and central Florida and will produce lots of rain and wind along the way. There is a slim chance that Tropical Storm Chantel will re-develop into a strong  storm, especially if the storm moves back out into the Atlantic.
Then what may happen? Maybe dejevu?!!!!!  Tropical storm Chantel has a possibility of gaining strength out over the Atlantic, then move back on shore in either South  or North Carolina. The most that should come out of this storm if it does redevelop would be more rain and storm surges along the eastern coast.
Conditions seem to be favorable for the storm to gain strength.  This storm should not be considered dead yet. Until the low breaks up or stays entirely over land, it would not be a safe bet that Chantel is dead.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Islands to Be Affected by Typhoon SOULIK - Update 6

As a point of interest with knowing the path of Typhoon Soulik, now a Category 3 storm to be a Category 4 storm, sits an Island in a group of Japanese Islands called Hateruma. It is the southern-most inhabited island in Japan located at 24 degrees 2'25" north latitude, 123*47'16" east longitude. Hateruma is one of the Yaeyama Islands and is about 15 miles south of the largest island group which houses the Hateruma public airport. The island is very small, and has a coastline of approximately 9.2 miles, with the highest elevation of the island of 195.2 feet. It is part of the Okinawa Prefecture, district of Yaeyama, town of Taketomi.
It is a very high tourist place, with day trips from Ishigaki during the daytime. The island contains the southern most Japanese school with the southern most police station, which are tourist attractions.
The second island to the west of Hateruma is an island called Yongaguni island, which has another Japanese airport. It is the closest island mass to Taiwan, some 150 miles to the west. Coastal warnings are from Taidong to the south, then engulfing the rest of the island to the north and northeast, to include Chenggong, Shoufeng, Hualian, Xincheng, Xiulin, Yilan County, New Taipei City, Keelung City.
I do not have information available concerning storms that passed over these two islands in the past, but they are fixing to get a beating by typhoon SOULIK. Other islands to be affected by Soulik are Iriomote Island, Hatoma Island, and Aragusuku Island. To the northwest of these islands is another island called Ishigaki Island with the main city of Ishigaki. Immediately below is a time lapse video taken of the island a short time ago. It is an extremely beautiful island, very lively and exciting, engulfed by the sea from every direction.
After Typhoon Soulik passes this island, I am hoping to provide actual before and after shots of the island to compare how the island survived the storm. Please watch this video, and return later to see how Typhoon Soulik affected the island.


Taiwan Starts Evacuations Along the Coast - Update 5



Evacuations have started as Taiwan evacuates 2,000 tourists as what is known as super-typhoon SOULIK continues to barrel its way towards Taiwan. Also taking notice is Southern Japan, as they have alerted their southern island of Okinawa of giant waves up to 12 metres.

Taiwan is warning residents that at the intensity of the storm, trees can be uprooted and rooftops will be torn off of their homes. It is not immediately known if the storm will directly hit Taiwan, but most likely the northern tip will experience extreme damages as the storm passes by.

According to a weather forecaster from a Taipei-based TVBS News Channel in Taiwan, "The public must heighten their vigilance as the typhoon will certainly bring strong winds and heavy rains." The storm seems to be following the prior path of a deadly storm in 1996 named Super-typhoon Herb. The death toll was at 51 dead and 22 others were missing.

After passing by Taiwan, the typhoon is expected to head towards the coastal provinces of Zhejiang and
Fujian, will "extremely strong" winds, as stated by the National Meteorological Centre as saying. One of the worst disasters of the area was experienced only 4 years ago, as Typhoon Morakot in 2009 killed
around 600 people in Taiwan. They were mostly buried beneath very large landslides. Because of recent earthquakes in the local mountainous regions within the last few weeks, more landslides are predicted with the passing of this storm.

Chantal Dissipates But Will Bring A Wet Weekend In Florida


Story by Ken Kaye / Sun Sentinel

Posted by Scott T. Smith / CBS12 News

After keeping Florida on edge for the past four days, Tropical Storm Chantal on Wednesday degenerated into an open wave in the Caribbean, about 260 miles south of Cuba.

Yet its remnants are expected to produce a wet, stormy weekend here, with 2-4 inches of rain in South Florida and 1-3 inches in Central Florida. Some areas could see heavy rain and street flooding, but not "a widespread heavy rain event," said meteorologist Stephen Konarik of the National Weather Service.

The gray weather is forecast to move into South Florida on Friday morning and into Central Florida later in the day. Winds could get gusty at times, but "we're not looking at much of a wind threat from this," added meteorologist Tony Cristaldi.

There is a small chance Chantal will regenerate in the Florida Straits, but it won't change the forecast for South and Central Florida, the weather service said.

After emerging Sunday in the eastern Atlantic, Chantal initially had been projected to approach Florida as a tropical storm on Friday.

However, it was difficult to forecast its track and intensity largely because disorganized systems such as Chantal are hard to predict, said senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven, of the National Hurricane Center.

"It's been tricky because it's been a marginally organized storm in a marginally favorable environment," he said.

Chantal battled strong wind shear and dry air along its path. And its fast-forward progress, close to 30 mph at times, also inhibited its intensification, Beven said.

Though Chantal never posed much of a threat to Florida, it could be a harbinger of an active season ahead. That's because it developed in the tropical region near Africa, Beven said.

"It could be an indicator that the main development region will be active at the height of season," he said.


http://bcove.me/k6eq2gnb

Difference between a Hurricane, Cyclone and Typhoon

The only difference between a hurricane, a cyclone, and a typhoon is the location where the storm occurs

Hurricane Katrine

Hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons are all the same weather phenomenon; we just use different names for these storms in different places. In the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, the term “hurricane” is used. The same type of disturbance in the Northwest Pacific is called a “typhoon” and “cyclones” occur in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
The ingredients for these storms include a pre-existing weather disturbance, warm tropical oceans, moisture, and relatively light winds. If the right conditions persist long enough, they can combine to produce the violent winds, incredible waves, torrential rains, and floods we associate with this phenomenon.
In the Atlantic, hurricane season officially runs June 1 to November 30. However, while 97 percent of tropical activity occurs during this time period, there is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months.
For more information: 
Hurricane BasicsNational Hurricane Center

Cyclone Soulik Continues Toward China - update 4

Cyclone Soulik is now barreling down towards China, but has weakened just a bit. The storm is expected to move over Taiwan as a Category 3 Cyclone, but then rapidly drop down to a Category 2 storm. Winds in excess of 120 MPH should be felt on the Island nation just prior to reaching the mainland of China. Extreme damage is expected from this storm and all precautions to try and stay out of its direct path should be taken. Obviously with a city the size of Taipei, approximately 4 million people, that would be hard to do, especially do to its location. This is only one city out of dozens of large cities that will be affected. But it is important to know now, ahead of the storm, what to expect. Families should be preparing for the worst situation, doing everything possible with protecting their families, knowing from past history what has happened with storms of this magnitude and nature.
One of the reasons why I write this blog is because it is important for people to know about these types of storms before they reach them. Unfortunately, as reader awareness of this blog is extremely new, most people from China and the Asian lands are not aware of the existence of this blog yet. Regardless, I will be pushing forward in an attempt to advise everyone within reach of this blog, the dangers as they approach of killer storms of this magnitude.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Category 4 Typhoon SOULIK Barreling Towards CHINA

Unlike Tropical Storm Chantel, on the other side of the globe is a storm named SOULIK. This storm is the strongest recorded this year as a tropical storm. Now a Category 4 Typhoon, the storm is packing steady winds of 140 MPH with gusts up to 186 MPH. This typhoon is expected to run into TIAWAN prior to hitting the China mainland and affect one of the highest populated provinces of China. Once it does hit the mainland, it will rapidly loose strength, causing lots of rain and winds in an area from just north of HONG KONG to as far north as GINGDAO. The storm is expected to slam the coastline at a level 2 to 3 typhoon. This storm is expected to cause lots of destruction as it enters the coastline. TAIPEI, one of the most densely populated cities in the world (nearly 3 million) will be affected, although these people are very familiar with storms of this nature and strength. 
Again, this is one of the strongest recorded storms this year. With winds over 100 MPH when entering land, it can surely take some lives on the way. Property damage should be extensive. It is highly recommended that people in the path of this storm move out of its way. The storm will go through some very highly populated areas, and millions of people will be affected. Damage and destruction will take place also because of high flooding and some mudslides that will be products of this storm.  Whatever emergency plans that your province has for you to take should be seriously considered at this time. 



Tropical Storm Chantel - Update 2

Tropical Storm CHANTEL hasn't been as predictable as previous storms. It has been tracking further to the south than anticipated. But the end result will take the storm through Florida, now expecting to pass right over Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, also affecting Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville before heading out to sea again. The storm is expected to continue on a northerly track and then back on land at Charleston. So unfortunately the storm will produce more rains and winds than expected for Florida, but the good news is that during this time, CHANTEL will only be a Tropical Depression, with wind speeds around 30 MPH and gusts at around 40 MPH. So it looks as if all this storm may produce is rainstorms with gusty winds. The storm is expected to stay inland once entering the shore again around Charleston, South Carolina and then dissipate. CHANTEL should also produce rain for the eastern coastline of Georgia, to include Savannah. 
The storm has fought wind sheer in the upper levels of the atmosphere, causing it to not gain strength. It was anticipated that the storm would go through the Dominican Republic and would loose all organization as it passed over the high mountains, but because the storm drifted more to the west before turning to the south, it passed directly over Cuba instead of the Dominican Republic. Puerto Rico was spared this time around because the storm stayed to the south, although rain was felt in these places.