Monday, July 8, 2013

Tropical Storm SOULIK may Intensify to Category 2 Typhoon

Tropical Storm SOULIK presently traveling to the west towards China, is moving at approximately 14 MPH with a wind speed of 45 MPH and gusts of 60 MPH. This storm is expected to intensify eventually to a Category 2 Typhoon by Wednesday, July 10, 2013 at approximately 7:00AM CDT USA. The wind speed at that time should be over 100 MPH with wind gusts at 125 MPH. This is the first Category 2 prediction of a storm this season.
Landfall is expected north of Taiwan in Zhejiang province directly over the city of Wenzhou, population over 3 Million people and Taizhou with over 5 Million people. Unless this storm slows down, it will create devastating effects along the coastline of China. High waves should reach from Quanzhou to Shanghai.  Anyone living on or near this coastal area should evacuate this coastal area within the next 2 days.























TS 1307 (SOULIK)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 8 July 2013

<Analyses at 08/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°10'(19.2°)
E143°55'(143.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E141°35'(141.6°)

Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°50'(19.8°)
E139°20'(139.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)

Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 10/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°55'(20.9°)
E134°25'(134.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 11/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°00'(22.0°)
E129°25'(129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)


WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK) 
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS FORMED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE RAPID SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION NOT CAPTURED BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 12 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS MITIGATED BY THE STORM
MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY,POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOWS HAVE IMPROVED, ENHANCED BY TWO TUTT CELLS - ONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE. THESE ARE EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.   
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE MAXIMUM FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED BY 20 KNOTS,OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ESTABLISHED IN THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. STEERED BY THE STR, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2 WILL PREVAIL AND PROMOTESTEADY, IF NOT RAPID, INTENSIFICATION. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 36 AND REACH 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS SOULIK WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ON A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION AS THE STR WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY END OF FORECAST AS VWS AND SUBSIDENCE IMPACT THE SYSTEM
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING AFTER TAU 96.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 96 DUE TO THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACK MECHANISM; AFTERWARDS, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE IMPACT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ON THE STEERING RIDGE.  //
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