Monday, July 14, 2014

Typhoon Rammasun - Category 1 - Intensifying and Moving Towards the Philippines, then Mainland China

Last Updated7/14/2014, 7:00:00 AM (Central Daylight Time)
Location12.7N 231.8EMovementWSW at 11mph
Wind85 MPH


Typhoon Rammasun, located approximately 435 Nautical Miles east-southeast of Manila, Philippines, has been moving West-Southwest at 10 knots for the last several hours. The convection of this storm has continued, as it has slowed down. The eyewall structure has become more developed . The upper level analysis of the storm indicate that it most likely will increase in strength. The wind speed has increased to 85 MPH, with gusts to 105 MPH. 

The core of Rammasun will pass north of Samar Island and strike the main Philippines island of Luzon, with the center passing very near the capital of Manila early Wednesday (local time). The main concern will be flash flooding and mudslides over Luzon and Samar, but wind damage also has the potential to be considerable, since the tphoon is passing over the most heavily populated part of Luzon. 
The system is forecast to proceed further into the more open waters of the South China Sea where the increased distance to land, favorable upper level support and warm waters will cause the storm to re-intensify. 

The system is forecast to continue west-northwestward across the South China Sea towards northern Hainan Island, making landfall between tau 96 and 120 across the Luichow Peninsula and into Mainland China. The system is expected to further intensify. Most models point the storm at the Luichow Peninsula.

Storm Track Statistics

DateTimeLatLonWind (mph)PressureStorm Type
Jul 1012 GMT10.8150.530-999Tropical Depression
Jul 1018 GMT11.4149.535-999Tropical Depression
Jul 1100 GMT12.0148.340-999Tropical Storm
Jul 1106 GMT12.6147.640-999Tropical Storm
Jul 1112 GMT13.0146.140-999Tropical Storm
Jul 1118 GMT13.3145.935-999Tropical Depression
Jul 1200 GMT13.8144.635-999Tropical Depression
Jul 1206 GMT13.7143.235-999Tropical Depression
Jul 1300 GMT13.6138.440-999Tropical Storm
Jul 1306 GMT13.6136.340-999Tropical Storm
Jul 1312 GMT13.5141.740-999Tropical Storm
Jul 1312 GMT13.4134.340-999Tropical Storm
Jul 1318 GMT13.6140.540-999Tropical Storm
Jul 1318 GMT13.3132.445-999Tropical Storm
Jul 1400 GMT13.2130.960-999Tropical Storm
Jul 1406 GMT13.0129.275-999Typhoon
Jul 1412 GMT12.7128.285-999Typhoon
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